Malmö head into Round 12 as clear favourites at home. Their last five outings produced 11 goals scored and four matches over 2.5, though two defeats - including a 1-4 hammering at Hammarby - underline defensive fragility. Key absentees Pontus Jansson and Anders Christiansen add concern at the back. Still, the model assigns them a 69% win probability, rising to 85% on the Draw No Bet line.
Göteborg arrive in wretched shape: one win in five, zero clean sheets across that run, and BTTS triggered in all five games. Three injured players further thin their squad. The model gives them just 15% to win, while BTTS lands at 68% probability - both sides have been bleeding goals.
At 1.90 the home win looks fairly priced, so the value sits elsewhere. BTTS YES at 1.57 (bet365) aligns neatly with the data: Göteborg have not kept a clean sheet in five, Malmö concede freely too. That 68% model probability implies a fair price of ~1.47 - 1.57 offers a small but genuine edge. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 24.08.25 | Allsvenskan | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.05.25 | Allsvenskan | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.10.24 | Allsvenskan | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 13.05.24 | Allsvenskan | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 03.09.23 | Allsvenskan | 2–2 | O2.5 |
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