Malmö head into Round 12 as clear favourites at home. Their last five outings produced 11 goals scored and four matches over 2.5, though two defeats - including a 1-4 hammering at Hammarby - underline defensive fragility. Key absentees Pontus Jansson and Anders Christiansen add concern at the back. Still, the model assigns them a 69% win probability, rising to 85% on the Draw No Bet line.
Göteborg arrive in wretched shape: one win in five, zero clean sheets across that run, and BTTS triggered in all five games. Three injured players further thin their squad. The model gives them just 15% to win, while BTTS lands at 68% probability - both sides have been bleeding goals.
At 1.90 the home win looks fairly priced, so the value sits elsewhere. BTTS YES at 1.57 (bet365) aligns neatly with the data: Göteborg have not kept a clean sheet in five, Malmö concede freely too. That 68% model probability implies a fair price of ~1.47 - 1.57 offers a small but genuine edge. Confidence: 3.
Los números tras el pronóstico
Forma · últimos cinco
Goles por partido · últimos cinco
Cara a cara · últimos cinco
| 24.08.25 | Allsvenskan | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 25.05.25 | Allsvenskan | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.10.24 | Allsvenskan | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 13.05.24 | Allsvenskan | 0–3 | O2.5 |
| 03.09.23 | Allsvenskan | 2–2 | O2.5 |
Los pronósticos son opiniones editoriales basadas en los datos disponibles al publicar - nunca una garantía. Las cuotas varían y la disponibilidad depende de la región. 18+, juega con responsabilidad. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service