Zwolle open their Eredivisie campaign having lost four of their last five across all competitions, conceding 11 goals in that run and keeping zero clean sheets. Ajax, by contrast, arrive with five wins from five, scoring 16 goals and conceding just five. Their Conference League double-header against Vojvodina alone produced eight goals for the Amsterdam side. The fitness concern is limited to goalkeeper ter Stegen on the away bench.
The numbers are one-sided. Zwolle scored in only 2 of their last 5 games, while Ajax scored in all 5 of theirs. In the two recent head-to-heads, Zwolle managed just 1 goal against Ajax in 2 meetings. The market prices Ajax at 1.47-1.50 for a straight win, with Draw No Bet available at 1.18 on bet365.
DNB Ajax at 1.18 is compressed, so the cleaner play is the straight away win at 1.50. The h2h includes a 0-0 home draw, so a small insurance is sensible. Back Ajax to win at 1.50.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 01.03.26 | Eredivisie | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 13.09.25 | Eredivisie | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 09.03.25 | Eredivisie | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 24.11.24 | Eredivisie | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.07.24 | Club Friendlies | 0–1 | U2.5 |
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