Wurzburger Kickers open their DFB Pokal campaign at home against a Cologne side that dropped out of the Bundesliga last season. The third-division hosts have shown genuine attacking punch - 13 goals across their last five outings - but their defensive record is porous and their opponents carry a clearly superior squad. Cologne's pre-season included a thumping 8-0 win and a credible result against Real Sociedad, suggesting they arrive in decent shape.
The numbers tell the same story in both directions. Wurzburg have gone over 2.5 in all five of their last five matches; so have Cologne. Both sides scored in all five of those games, and BTTS landed in four of five for each team. Neither side has injury concerns listed. The gap in class between a 3. Liga side and a relegated Bundesliga club is the decisive factor here.
Cologne are the clear pick to progress. With no odds available, the value play on the night is BTTS Yes - both teams have the firepower and the leaky defences to make it a near-certainty. For a bolder angle, back Cologne Draw No Bet at whatever price reflects their class advantage.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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