Wrexham arrive at round six unbeaten in three of their last five Championship outings, picking up a commanding 3-0 win at Millwall along the way. Burnley, by contrast, have lost three of their last five, conceding 12 goals across that run and failing to keep a single clean sheet. The visitors have scored in all five recent games, but their defensive fragility is the defining number here.
The model puts Wrexham's win probability at 76 percent, with home DNB available at 1.68. Burnley have conceded in all five of their last matches, while Wrexham have kept two clean sheets in five. With Cacace and Thomason absent for the hosts and Banel and Barnes out for Burnley, the balance of absences does not swing the needle away from the home side.
At 1.68, Wrexham Draw No Bet represents genuine value against a 76 percent model probability. Back Wrexham DNB.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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