Wolves head into round 10 with a mixed five-game run, two wins, one draw, two defeats, but those losses came away from home against Middlesbrough and in the League Cup. Their defensive record stands out: they have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 outings and conceded in only 3. Bolton arrive in worse shape, losing three of their last five and shipping 12 goals across that sample with clean sheets in just 1 of 5.
The numbers tilt sharply toward Wolves. Bolton have conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches and gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of 5, so this pitch is wide open at the back. Wolves, meanwhile, scored in 3 of 5 recent games and carry a four-player injury list but remain clear favourites at 1.40. The model puts home win probability at 70 percent, well above what the price implies.
Draw No Bet on Wolves at 1.15 (bet365) removes the draw risk on a side that should control this fixture. The price is short but the case is clean. Stake accordingly.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service