Wingate and Finchley arrive at this FA Cup semi-final on the back of three wins and two draws from their last five, unbeaten and scoring in every outing. Bedford are winless in their last two but have found the net in all five recent matches. The pair met just three days ago and shared a 2-2 draw, so both sides know each other well heading into this replay.
The numbers make a compelling case for goals. Wingate have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5. Bedford have done the same in 4 of 5, and BTTS has landed in all five of their recent games. The only head-to-head on record finished 2-2, with both teams scoring and the total clearing 2.5 with ease.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 (Marathon) is the call. The data points consistently in one direction and the price carries fair value. Confidence is modest given the one-off knockout format, but the goal trends are hard to ignore.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.10.26 | FA Cup | 2–2 | O2.5 |
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