West Ham arrive in round 7 of the Championship in commanding form: four wins from five recent outings, including a 3-2 win at Bolton and a 4-2 home demolition of Wolves. Wrexham, by contrast, have won just once in five, collecting three draws and a defeat, and travel here without Cacace and Thomason. Soucek is absent for the hosts, but the squad depth looks adequate.
The numbers back West Ham clearly. They have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches, netting 15 goals across that run. Wrexham have scored in 4 of 5 but conceded in 3 of 5, and their away record away from home this season is thin. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of West Ham's last 5. The model puts West Ham's win probability at 49 per cent, which is ahead of the implied 62.5 per cent baked into the 1.60 price - tight, but form justifies backing it.
West Ham to win at 1.60 (bet365) is the call. The home side's goal output and Wrexham's inability to keep clean sheets on the road make this a workable price. Confidence is moderate.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service