West Ham arrive at round 9 in genuine form. Three wins from five recent outings, 16 goals scored across that sample, and all five matches clearing 2.5 goals. QPR, by contrast, have won just once in their last five, collecting three draws and managing only 5 goals in the process. The visitors have failed to score in two of those five matches.
The injury list is the decisive detail here. QPR are without five named players including Ilias Chair and Tariq Lamptey, stripping them of creativity and width. West Ham have scored in all 5 of their last five matches. The model puts the home win probability at 57 percent, with the DNB price at 1.20 (bet365) offering a clean safety net if the game somehow levels.
At 1.20 the DNB margin is thin but the logic is sound. A depleted QPR side, one win in five, visiting a team that has averaged over 3 goals per game recently. Back West Ham DNB at 1.20.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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