Werder opened their Bundesliga campaign with a 1-4 hammering at Freiburg, and their last five matches across all competitions show 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, conceding in 4 of those 5 outings. Leipzig, by contrast, won their opener 3-0 at home against Monchengladbach and have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games, conceding in only 2 of them. Four of Leipzig's last 5 games have gone over 2.5 goals, driven by their own attacking output of 14 goals scored.
The head-to-head record over the last five Bundesliga meetings is stark: Werder have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, conceding 9 goals against 4 scored. Leipzig have won 3 of those 5 fixtures. Werder also carry three injury absences into this fixture, while Leipzig are without four players including goalkeeper Nyland.
At 1.73-1.75 the away win is the clearest read. The DNB for Leipzig at 1.35-1.40 is too compressed to recommend. The 1X2 away price at 1.73 is the main tip at confidence 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 04.04.26 | Bundesliga | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 23.11.25 | Bundesliga | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 10.05.25 | Bundesliga | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 12.01.25 | Bundesliga | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 11.05.24 | Bundesliga | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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