Vitoria are in freefall. Four losses from their last five across all competitions, conceding seven goals in that run while scoring just two. Gremio arrive in better shape: two wins from five, six goals scored, and back-to-back 3-1 victories to build confidence going into the trip.
The numbers cut hard against the home side. Vitoria scored in only 2 of their last 5 games and conceded in 4. The h2h tells the same story - Vitoria have lost both recent meetings, shipping five goals and netting just one. Five injured players further thin a squad already struggling badly. Gremio, even with three absentees, look the sharper outfit.
The market prices Gremio at 3.4, which feels generous given the evidence. Vitoria are broken in form and decimated by injuries. I back Gremio to win at 3.4 - bigger price, real case behind it.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.03.26 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.25 | Serie A | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.04.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 05.12.24 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 21.07.24 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service