Vitoria host Bahia in a Bahian derby that carries real needle. The home side is patchy, winning just 2 of their last 5 across all competitions and carrying five injury absences into this one. Bahia, meanwhile, have not lost in any of their last 5 matches, going 0W-5D-0L in that run.
The numbers tell a clear story. Vitoria scored in only 2 of their last 5 games and kept just 2 clean sheets, but still conceded in 3. In the h2h, Vitoria have won just 1 of 4 meetings against Bahia, losing 2. Bahia are priced at 2.84 for the win, while the model gives them a 44% chance, implying fair odds closer to 2.27. That gap is too wide to ignore.
Bahia away is a resilient unit that does not lose. Their form, the h2h record and a stretched Vitoria squad all point the same way. Back Bahia to win at 2.84.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.03.26 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 07.03.26 | Baiano 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 25.01.26 | Baiano 1 | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 17.10.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 18.05.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service