Venezia arrive at this Serie A Round 5 fixture without a single point on the board, having lost all five of their recent outings and conceded 13 goals in the process. Lazio, by contrast, carry genuine momentum: three wins and a draw from their last four competitive games, with two clean sheets already banked this season.
The numbers tell a brutal story for the hosts. Venezia have conceded in all 5 of their last matches and kept zero clean sheets, while Lazio have scored in 4 of their last 5. The model puts Lazio's win probability at 85%, and the DNB price of 1.44 on Marathon reflects a side that is genuinely fragile at the back. Five Venezia players are also sidelined through injury, stretching a squad already struggling for quality.
Lazio to win is the call, and I want the bigger price. At 1.91-1.97 for the straight away win, there is real value given the 85% model probability. Back Lazio on the 1X2 at 1.97.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 22.02.25 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 18.08.24 | Serie A | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service