The Lagoon city hosts a Fiorentina side that looks every bit as lost as their hosts right now. Both teams arrive at Round 4 with identical recent records - 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses from their last 5 outings - and a combined 22 goals conceded across those games. This fixture has crisis written all over it, but home walls matter when pride is on the line.
Venezia have conceded in all 5 of their recent matches but have also scored in 3 of 5. Fiorentina are no better: 0 clean sheets, conceded in 5 of 5, and three heavy defeats to Roma, Frosinone and Torino in Serie A. The h2h tells a different story: Venezia are unbeaten in 2 meetings at home, winning the last one 2-1. The model puts the home win or draw probability at 84%, making the DNB price of 2.15-2.20 look generous.
Venezia DNB at 2.15 is the play. A wounded home side, a visiting Fiorentina in freefall, and a head-to-head that leans Venezia. If you want heat, try Over 2.5 at 1.80 - both defences are porous and goals have flowed freely.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.05.25 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 25.08.24 | Serie A | 0–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service