São Januário is a fortress right now. Vasco arrive here having won 4 of their last 5 across all competitions, conceding just 2 goals in that run, while Remo have lost 4 of their last 5 in the league, shipping 9 goals with zero clean sheets. Striker Brenner is out for the hosts, but Remo are missing Mayk and Jaja, leaving their already-leaky attack even thinner.
The numbers back the home side hard. Vasco have scored 11 goals in their last 5 outings and kept 3 clean sheets. Remo have conceded in all 5 of their recent games. The model puts Vasco's win probability at 54%, with the home-or-draw figure sitting at 77%. At 1.33 the home win is short but deserved.
I back Vasco to win. The price is tight, but the gap in form and squad depth is real. For those who want the bigger swing, Over 3.5 goals at 2.50 is the alt - Vasco have put 5 past Coritiba recently and Remo have no clean sheet in sight.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.04.26 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
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