USA arrive at this friendly group-stage fixture on the back of a 4-1 demolition of Peru, and their recent record shows 3 wins from 5 with 11 goals scored. Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright are absent through injury, which trims the attacking options, but the hosts have found the net in all 5 of their last matches and kept 2 clean sheets in the process. Chile, by contrast, have lost 3 of their last 5, conceded in every single one of those games, and shipped 10 goals across that run.
The numbers point firmly in one direction. USA averaged 2.2 goals scored per game across the last 5, while Chile conceded in all 5 of their recent fixtures. Chile have registered 0 clean sheets in that stretch and their defensive record - 10 goals allowed in 5 games - is alarming for a side entering a competitive group format. BTTS landed in 3 of USA's last 5 and in 4 of Chile's last 5, making goals from both sides a live possibility.
With no odds available, the value call is USA on the Draw No Bet market. Three wins in five with goals to burn, facing a side that has not kept a single clean sheet in recent memory. Confidence is measured given the injury absences up front, but the direction is clear. Alt play: BTTS YES, backed by both sides' recent tendency to give up goals.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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