Turkey arrive in Nations League A Round 1 on the back of a turbulent World Cup: 3 wins but 6 goals conceded in 5 games, failing to score in 2 of those 5 outings. France also had a mixed summer - exiting the World Cup at the semi-final stage - but their defensive record is notably tighter, keeping 3 clean sheets in 5 matches and conceding in only 2 of those 5 games. No head-to-head data is available for this fixture, so form is the only lens here. The market has France at 1.42 (bet365), implying roughly 70% probability. The model backs that pricing. Turkey conceded in 4 of their last 5 games and Yunus Akgun is absent through injury, thinning their attacking options. France scored in 4 of 5 recent matches and their defensive solidity gives them a structural edge. France win at 1.42 is the main call. For more risk, BTTS YES at 1.62 is live given Turkey's tendency to score when they get chances.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.10.19 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.06.19 | UEFA European Championship Qualifiers | 2–0 | U2.5 |
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