Troyes arrive at this Ligue 1 round-3 fixture unbeaten in their last five outings (2W 3D), including a 2-1 win at Lorient. Strasbourg, by contrast, have lost four of their last five, conceding 16 goals across that run, and carry five injury absences into this trip. The head-to-head record - two games, one Troyes win and one draw - adds further weight to the home side.
The model puts Troyes at 73% to win and home-or-draw at 94%. Strasbourg have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches, while BTTS lands at just 20% probability. Under 2.5 goals comes in at 69%, but the cleanest edge is on the 1X2: Troyes at 3.10-3.18 versus a true price closer to 1.37.
With DNB not available in the odds, the Double Chance 1X at 1.57-1.65 is the play. A 94% model probability against a market implying roughly 61% is a gap worth taking. Confidence is firm but not maxed - Strasbourg did beat Lens at home last week.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 21.05.23 | Ligue 1 | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 02.01.23 | Ligue 1 | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service