The Black Sea derby lands at Trabzon with the home side riding a wave after thrashing Galatasaray 4-0 in September and dismantling Samsunspor 3-0 on the road. Besiktas arrive in form too, four wins from five, but they have leaked goals in four of those five games and carry two injury absences up front. The Karadeniz atmosphere will be electric and Trabzonspor have a point to prove in front of their own crowd.
The numbers back the noise. Trabzonspor's last five games produced 11 goals for and only 4 against. Besiktas conceded in 4 of their last 5 outings. The model puts the home win at 61%, while the market prices Trabzonspor at 2.70, a gap worth exploiting. Head-to-head, Trabzon have kept zero clean sheets in five meetings, so goals are likely, but the home side's firepower looks superior tonight.
Take Trabzonspor to win at 2.70. The price is generous for a side that put four past Galatasaray at home and the model edge is real. Confidence is measured because Besiktas are dangerous on the counter, but the value sits firmly with the hosts.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 09.05.26 | Süper Lig | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 14.12.25 | Süper Lig | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 15.02.25 | Süper Lig | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 15.09.24 | Süper Lig | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 23.05.24 | Cup | 3–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service