Toulouse arrive at round 3 with one win in their last five competitive and friendly outings, leaking nine goals across those games. Lille, by contrast, are unbeaten in five (2W 3D) and have scored in every one of those matches. The head-to-head record reinforces the gap: Toulouse have lost four of the last five meetings against Lille, conceding 11 goals while keeping zero clean sheets.
The model puts Lille's win probability at 73%, with away-win-or-draw at 90%. In the h2h, every single game has gone over 2.5 goals (5 of 5), and Lille have scored in all five. Toulouse scored in only 3 of their last 5 outings. The DNB price on Lille (1.52 bet365) reflects a fair line given those inputs.
Lille Draw No Bet at 1.52 is the call. The away side's form, goal threat and h2h dominance all point the same direction. Even if the game tightens, Lille have not lost in five, and Toulouse's defensive record offers little comfort to the home side.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.04.26 | Ligue 1 | 0–4 | O2.5 |
| 14.09.25 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 12.04.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 05.10.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 25.02.24 | Ligue 1 | 3–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service