Toulouse arrive at round 5 without a single win in their last five outings, picking up two draws and three losses. Le Havre are equally unconvincing: one win, two draws and two defeats in their recent five, with five injured players limiting their attacking options. The market has Toulouse as modest favourites at 1.73-1.76, but the model puts the home win probability at just 34%, with a draw the single most likely outcome at 39%.
The key numbers drive a clear signal. Toulouse have conceded in all 5 of their last five matches and kept zero clean sheets. Yet Le Havre are also misfiring: only 3 goals scored in their last five, and just 1 of those games went over 2.5. In the last five head-to-heads, only 2 ended with both teams scoring. The model puts Under 2.5 at 84% and BTTS-No at 76%.
Under 2.5 goals at 1.91 (bet365) is the play. Both defences leak but neither attack fires consistently enough to push this over two goals. Confidence is solid given the convergence of form data and model output.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 15.02.26 | Ligue 1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 02.11.25 | Ligue 1 | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.02.25 | Ligue 1 | 1–4 | O2.5 |
| 15.09.24 | Ligue 1 | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 10.03.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service