Torpedo Kutaisi arrive at this second leg in dire form: 0 wins, 4 losses in their last 5 matches, conceding 10 goals while scoring just 4. Zira, by contrast, have won 2 of their last 5, scored in 4 of 5 outings, and already crushed Kutaisi 3-0 in the first leg eight days ago. The home side have failed to score in that meeting and in 2 of their last 5 overall.
The numbers reinforce the gap. Kutaisi's last 5 produced 4 over-2.5 results and 3 BTTS - goals flow but rarely for them. Zira's last 5 also hit 4 over-2.5, with 8 goals scored against 6 conceded. The aggregate scoreline means Zira need only avoid a 3-goal deficit; Kutaisi must score at least 3 without reply.
The model points firmly at Zira. DNB Away at 1.60 (bet365) covers the unlikely draw scenario and still returns value given the 3-0 cushion Zira carry. Confidence: 4.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.07.26 | UEFA Conference League | 3–0 | O2.5 |
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