Toluca arrive in superb shape: 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 2. The model puts home-win probability at 64%, with Toluca unbeaten in all five head-to-head meetings against Leon. Club Leon are no slouch either - 4 wins from 5 - but they have conceded in 3 of those 5 outings and carry two injury absences into this semi-final.
The key numbers: Toluca's h2h record reads W3 D2 L0, with 17 goals scored and 9 conceded across those five clashes. Both sides have kept only 2 clean sheets each in recent form, and Leon have scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches. The model gives Toluca an 87% chance of winning or drawing, making the Draw No Bet a clean way to back them.
DNB Toluca at 1.32 (bet365) is the play. The home side's dominance in this fixture is the defining edge. Confidence is modest given the short price, but the data leaves little room for doubt.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 26.04.26 | Liga MX | 4–1 | O2.5 |
| 05.10.25 | Liga MX | 2–4 | O2.5 |
| 09.02.25 | Liga MX | 3–3 | O2.5 |
| 03.11.24 | Liga MX | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 04.02.24 | Liga MX | 4–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service