Tigre host a River Plate side that has lost four of its last five across all competitions, conceding in every single one of those five games. The Victoria ground gives Tigre a platform, and with River carrying five injury absentees including Moreno and Driussi, this is not the Millonario that rolls over smaller clubs.
Tigre's last five show 2 wins, 2 losses and 1 draw, with 7 goals scored against 4 conceded. River managed just 3 goals in their last five while leaking 8. Head-to-head across 3 meetings, Tigre claimed 1 win and over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of those 3 clashes. The model gives Tigre a 21% win probability, yet the DNB price of 2.38 implies roughly 42%.
That gap is the edge. Tigre DNB at 2.38 covers you if River sneak a draw while still paying big on a home win. The bigger price is the honest price here.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.02.26 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–4 | O2.5 |
| 03.06.24 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 18.02.23 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 0–1 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service