Tigre arrive at this Sudamericana last-16 tie with three injuries in the squad (Arias, Leyes, Romero) and a mixed five-game run: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses, scoring in just 3 of those 5 games. Montevideo City have been leaky on the road, conceding in 4 of their last 5 outings, but they also failed to score in 1 of those 5, suggesting a modest attacking ceiling away from home.
The model puts under 2.5 goals at 62% probability. Two key inputs: Tigre kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and produced only 2 over-2.5 games in that stretch; Montevideo City went over 2.5 in 3 of 5, but those high-scoring matches came against weaker domestic opposition. The market prices under 2.5 at 1.62-1.65, implying roughly 61-62%, almost exactly in line with the model.
At 1.63 (best available), under 2.5 goals offers fair value with a model edge. The price is short, so conviction stays measured. Main tip: Under 2.5 goals at 1.63.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service