Telstar arrive at round 4 with two wins and three defeats from their last five, keeping zero clean sheets across that run and conceding in all five matches. Ajax, unbeaten in five outings with three wins and two draws, have scored in every game and carry clear confidence from back-to-back Conference League victories over Sion. Daley Blind is listed out for the visitors but the squad depth is not in question here.
The head-to-head record is stark: Telstar have lost all four meetings, shipping 12 goals and scoring just 3. The model places Ajax's win probability at 60 percent, and the DNB price of 1.26 (bet365) reflects that dominance without offering value. Ajax at 1.57 straight is the cleaner play, backed by a side that has scored 15 goals in five recent outings.
Take Ajax on the 1X2 at 1.57. The home side's defensive fragility - conceded in all five recent matches - makes an Ajax win the path of least resistance. Confidence is solid without being extreme.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.01.26 | Eredivisie | 2–3 | O2.5 |
| 10.08.25 | Eredivisie | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 19.12.24 | KNVB Beker | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 30.12.22 | Club Friendlies | 5–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service