Sweden arrive in Nations League B on the back of a 2-1 win over Romania, but their last five games tell the fuller story: 9 goals scored, 11 conceded, zero clean sheets and 4 of 5 matches finishing over 2.5. Poland, meanwhile, drew 0-0 with Bosnia in their opener and carry four absences including goalkeeper Grabara, which puts pressure on an already fragile backline. The head-to-head adds weight: 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides cleared 2.5 goals, with a combined 12 goals across those three games. Sweden have conceded in all 5 of their recent matches; Poland have conceded in 4 of 5. Both defences invite punishment. The model points firmly to a high-scoring night. Over 2.5 at 1.62-1.71 looks underpriced given the structural leakiness on both sides.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 31.03.26 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 29.03.22 | UEFA World Cup Qualifiers | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 23.06.21 | European Championship | 3–2 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service