Sunderland arrive at this fixture with two wins from their last five across all competitions, and they are without Habib Diarra and Romaine Mundle through injury. Brighton, by contrast, have won three of their last five, scoring 15 goals in that run. The gulf in attacking output is hard to ignore, and the model places Brighton's win probability at 90 per cent.
The head-to-head record is tight - two meetings, zero goals for Sunderland, no BTTS across either game - but Brighton's recent form dwarfs that caution. They have scored in all five of their last matches and kept two clean sheets in the process. Sunderland have scored in just four of their last five and conceded in three. Brighton carry six absentees, yet the depth still shows.
Brighton Draw No Bet at 1.62 (bet365) is the call. You give up the draw insurance on a side the model rates at 96 per cent to win or draw, and the price still represents fair value against a Sunderland outfit short of firepower and confidence.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 14.03.26 | Premier League | 0–1 | U2.5 |
| 20.12.25 | Premier League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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