Strasbourg arrive in round 4 with two wins in five but a defence that has conceded in all five recent matches. Monaco, by contrast, have won all five of their last outings, scoring 12 and conceding just 4. The visitors beat PSG away in their most recent league fixture, underlining a level of form Strasbourg simply cannot match right now, with four players sidelined through injury.
The model puts Monaco's win probability at 81%, against implied odds of roughly 47% at 2.15. Draw No Bet removes the one scenario where Strasbourg could steal a point; the DNB price of 1.58 (bet365/10Bet) reflects a fair edge. In head-to-head meetings, over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of the last 5, but Monaco's clean-sheet ability (2 in their last 5) means BTTS is far from certain at 39%.
Verdict: Monaco DNB at 1.58 is the model's clearest signal this round. The 81% win probability against a host with zero clean sheets in five games makes the case without needing anything else.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 17.05.26 | Ligue 1 | 5–4 | O2.5 |
| 05.02.26 | Coupe de France | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 31.08.25 | Ligue 1 | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 19.04.25 | Ligue 1 | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 09.11.24 | Ligue 1 | 1–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service