St. Truiden arrive in patchy form, two wins and two draws in five matches, leaking nine goals along the way. Royale Union SG, meanwhile, are unbeaten in five outings, with three wins and a goal tally of 13 scored against only five conceded. Two injured players miss out for Union, but the squad depth looks sufficient.
The key numbers: the model puts Union at 67% to win, against just 9% for the hosts. In head-to-head terms, St. Truiden have won only 1 of their last 4 meetings with Union, conceding in all four. Union are also priced at 1.95-2.00 across books, offering genuine value at those odds given the model gap. The model also flags 69% probability for under 2.5 goals, with BTTS at just 25%.
Verdict: Union SG away win at 2.00 is the main call. The h2h record, the form gap and the model all point the same direction. Confidence is solid without being maximum given early-season variance.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 02.05.26 | First Division A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 04.04.26 | First Division A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 22.03.26 | First Division A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 26.10.25 | First Division A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.02.25 | First Division A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service