St. Truiden open their First Division A campaign at home against newly promoted Lommel SK. The hosts posted a mixed pre-season: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in 5 friendlies, scoring in only 2 of those 5 outings. Lommel arrive in worse defensive shape, conceding in all 5 of their warm-up games and leaking 13 goals across the run.
The key numbers: Lommel registered BTTS in 4 of 5 pre-season matches, while St. Truiden kept just 2 clean sheets in 5. The market prices BTTS YES at 1.77-1.83, implying roughly 55% probability. With Lommel conceding every single game and St. Truiden scoring in 2 of 5, the visitor's inability to keep a clean sheet is the dominant driver here.
Verdict: BTTS YES at 1.80 (bet365). Lommel's defence has not kept a single clean sheet in pre-season, and St. Truiden have enough quality at home to find the net. The price offers modest but genuine value on a pattern backed by both sides' recent data.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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