Sparta arrive at round 5 in patchy form - one win from four Eredivisie outings - but they host a Zwolle side that has lost four of its last five matches and travels without Jan Burger and Younes Namli. The head-to-head record, viewed from Sparta's side, reads zero wins, two draws and three losses in the last five meetings, so this is no gimme. That said, Zwolle's away days have been brutal: eleven goals conceded in five outings, and a solitary win to show for it. The h2h is defined by low scoring - zero games over 2.5 goals in five meetings - yet both sides have conceded in four of their last five, so goals are not off the table entirely. Sparta's DNB at 1.42 (bet365) removes the draw risk in a fixture where a Zwolle win looks the least likely outcome at 26% model probability. Thin margin, but value is present.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 08.03.26 | Eredivisie | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 08.11.25 | Eredivisie | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 15.03.25 | Eredivisie | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 30.11.24 | Eredivisie | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 04.02.24 | Eredivisie | 0–2 | U2.5 |
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