Spalding United arrive at this FA Cup semi-final in decent nick: three wins from five recent outings, scoring in every one of them. The first leg three days ago ended 1-1 at Bury Town, so Spalding hold a slight psychological edge playing at home now. Bury have also scored in all five of their recent matches, but their defensive record is shakier - nine goals conceded in five games.
The head-to-head record across three meetings tells a clean story: Spalding have won two and drawn one, keeping no clean sheets but consistently finding the net. Both teams scored in all three previous encounters, and three of those five combined recent games went over 2.5 goals. At 1.75-1.80, Over 2.5 looks the sharpest number on the board.
Spalding at 1.64-1.67 is fair but short given the replay context. The real value sits in goals. Over 2.5 at 1.75 (Marathon) is the main play. For the alt, back BTTS YES at 1.72 - both sides have scored in every recent game and in all three h2h meetings.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.10.26 | FA Cup | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 25.11.25 | Non League Premier | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 23.09.25 | Non League Premier | 1–2 | O2.5 |
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