Spain arrive in blistering form, five wins from five with 12 goals scored and only 4 conceded. Czech Republic, meanwhile, have lost 4 of their last 5, shipping 10 goals and keeping zero clean sheets. Six absentees on the Czech injury list make a tough evening look even bleaker.
The model puts Over 2.5 goals at 93% probability. Spain have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5 outings, scoring in all 5. Czech Republic have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 matches and have also gone over 2.5 in 3 of those. The structural conditions for a high-scoring Spain victory are firmly in place.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.33 (WilliamHill) is the main play. The alt is AH -2 Spain at 1.40 (bet365): a side averaging 2.4 goals per game against opponents who have conceded 10 in five. Confidence: 4.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.06.22 | UEFA Nations League | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.06.22 | UEFA Nations League | 2–2 | O2.5 |
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