Slovakia open their Nations League C campaign at home against a Moldova side that has won none of their last five. Slovakia themselves are patchy: two wins, a draw and two losses in five, including a 3-4 home defeat to Kosovo. Key midfielder Lobotka is absent, alongside Sauer and Rigo, which limits their creative control. Moldova arrive without Dumbravanu and Bodisteanu, and their defensive record is alarming.
The numbers are decisive. Slovakia hit over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding in 4 of 5. Moldova conceded in all 5 of their last 5, keeping zero clean sheets. Combined, these two sides have produced 40 goals across 10 recent games, an average of 4.0 per match. The model flags goals as the high-confidence angle here.
Over 2.5 at 1.65 (bet365) is the call. The goal flow from both camps is relentless, and Moldova's defence offers no resistance. The price is fair for a market the data backs strongly. Confidence: 4.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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