Serbia arrive in wretched form, losing 4 of their last 5 matches and shipping 14 goals in that run. Their only win came against Saudi Arabia. Netherlands, by contrast, are unbeaten in 5 outings, with 3 wins and 13 goals scored. Key absences hit both sides, but Serbia lose two defenders in Milenkovic and Ivanovic, compounding a backline that has conceded in all 5 recent games. Netherlands have scored in all 5 of theirs. The numbers are stark: Serbia average just 0.8 goals per game while conceding 2.8. Netherlands scored 13 and conceded 6 across 5 games. Every single one of those 5 Netherlands matches went over 2.5 goals total. With Serbia conceding in 5 of 5 and Netherlands scoring in 5 of 5, the model points firmly to an away win. At 1.42, Netherlands to win is the call. Alt: back BTTS YES at 1.80, with both sides having scored in their recent games and zero clean sheets between them.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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