Serbia arrive in poor shape, winning just 2 of their last 5 and conceding 13 goals across that run. Greece are even more worrying in attack: zero wins in 5, only 2 goals scored, and they found the net in just 1 of those 5 matches. Four Greek absentees - Giannoulis, Tsimikas, Bakasetas and Karetsas - further thin out an already blunt attack. No head-to-head data exists between these sides, so form is everything here.
The key numbers: Greece scored in only 1 of 5 recent games. Serbia conceded in all 5. The market prices Under 2.5 at 1.70-1.72. Greece's over 2.5 rate sits at just 1 in 5. Even Serbia's attacking output is modest at 5 goals in 5, averaging 1.0 per game.
The model reads this as a low-scoring affair. Greece's attacking poverty is the dominant input. Under 2.5 at 1.72 (bet365) is the pick. Alt: BTTS No at 1.96 (Marathon), backed by Greece scoring in just 1 of 5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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