Sao Paulo welcome Vasco to the Morumbi carrying two defeats in their last three Serie A outings, a leaky backline and a five-man injury list. The visitors, meanwhile, have turned into a defensive machine, arriving on the back of four wins from five across all competitions.
The numbers back Vasco hard. They have conceded in just 1 of their last 5 matches and kept 4 clean sheets in that run. Sao Paulo scored in 4 of 5 recent games but gave up 6 goals in the process, and their injury absences include defenders Buta, Domingos Duarte and Ferreira. Vasco also beat Sao Paulo 2-1 in the most recent H2H meeting in April.
At 3.42-3.70, the away win is criminally generous. Vasco travel with momentum, a watertight defence and a point to prove. I back them to silence the home crowd at that price.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 18.04.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.11.25 | Serie A | 0–2 | U2.5 |
| 13.06.25 | Serie A | 1–3 | O2.5 |
| 17.10.24 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 23.06.24 | Serie A | 4–1 | O2.5 |
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