Santos come into this Vila Belmiro fixture on a three-win run across all competitions, but their home record shows they have conceded in 2 of their last 5 games and kept just 3 clean sheets. Mirassol arrive battered, winless in 5, yet they have scored in 4 of those 5 outings and have conceded in all 5, shipping 11 goals along the way. The head-to-head record seals the argument: in the last 5 meetings between these sides, both teams scored in 4 of them and the fixture produced over 2.5 goals 4 times too. Santos carry more quality but Mirassol have goals in their legs and the history of this fixture runs hot. BTTS YES at 1.75 is the play, backed by a model probability of 58%.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.03.26 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.11.25 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 19.07.25 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 17.01.25 | Paulista A1 | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 12.10.24 | Serie B | 3–2 | O2.5 |
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