Santos host Macara in the Sudamericana last 16 carrying four injury absences and inconsistent form: two wins, two draws and a loss across their last five, with goals scored in only 3 of those 5 outings. Macara arrive in far better shape, winning 4 of their last 5 in Liga Pro, but those results came against Ecuadorian opposition and the step up in class is significant. No previous meetings exist between these sides, so the model leans on form and context alone. The key numbers are stark. The model puts Under 2.5 goals at 84% probability, against a market price of 1.70 - a clear edge. Santos have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 recent games and scored in only 3; both teams to score landed in just 2 of those 5. Macara's attacking output in Liga Pro is real, but continental knockout football tends to compress scores. The verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 1.70. Santos are unlikely to open up freely at home with four players absent, and Macara, despite their form, face a genuine defensive test. The model's 84% probability versus the implied 59% in the price is a meaningful gap. Confidence: 3.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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