Santos arrive in red-hot form, five wins from five with 11 goals scored, but Flamengo have lost none of their last five and arrive with a squad that has been grinding through Libertadores and Serie A simultaneously. Without Neymar and Barreal, Santos carry a real creative hole going into one of Brazilian football's fiercest rivalries.
The head-to-head numbers tell a sobering story for the home faithful: Santos have lost 3 of the last 5 meetings with Flamengo, conceding 10 goals against 8 scored. Both teams have found the net in 4 of those 5 clashes, and 4 of 5 went over 2.5 goals. Flamengo have scored in all 5 of their recent games and kept 2 clean sheets, showing they can control tempo when needed.
Flamengo at 4.5 is the bold play here. The model gives them a 56% win probability, the market underprices that badly. Santos missing key attackers against a side that wins ugly and wins pretty - back Flamengo to win at 4.5.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 05.04.26 | Serie A | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 09.11.25 | Serie A | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 17.07.25 | Serie A | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.11.23 | Serie A | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 25.06.23 | Serie A | 2–3 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service