Santos arrive at this Serie A Round 22 fixture unbeaten in five, but four of those games came in cup competitions and they carry four injury absences into the night. Athletico-PR have won three of their last five, including back-to-back Serie A victories over Internacional and Sao Paulo on the road.
The head-to-head record over five meetings gives Santos only 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, with Athletico winning the most recent fixture 2-1. The model puts the visitors at 44% win probability against a Santos home price of 2.10-2.15. Athletico kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 games, conceding in only 2 of those outings.
With Santos missing four players and Athletico in sharp form, the away win at 3.60 is the bigger price worth backing. The model backs the visitors; I agree.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 12.02.26 | Serie A | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 03.12.23 | Serie A | 3–0 | O2.5 |
| 05.08.23 | Serie A | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 28.09.22 | Serie A | 2–0 | U2.5 |
| 05.06.22 | Serie A | 2–2 | O2.5 |
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