Sanfrecce Hiroshima arrive at Round 5 unbeaten in their last five across all competitions, posting three wins and two draws. Takuma Asano is absent, but the hosts have still scored in four of those five outings and conceded only three goals. Nagoya Grampus, missing Vinicius Marcus, have lost three of their last five, kept no clean sheets in that run, and conceded in all five matches.
The head-to-head record leans Nagoya's way on paper - two wins from three - but both away victories came on the road, and Hiroshima dismantled them 4-2 at home in May. The model places home-win probability at 78%, with the draw no bet price at 1.20 (bet365). Nagoya's defensive record over five recent games is the softest number in this fixture.
DNB Hiroshima at 1.20 is the call. The insurance against the draw is worth the margin compression given the form gap. For a riskier angle, BTTS No at 2.00 appeals: the model puts BTTS probability at just 37%, and Hiroshima kept two clean sheets in five.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 23.05.26 | J1 League | 4–2 | O2.5 |
| 18.03.26 | J1 League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 27.08.25 | Emperor Cup | 2–4 | O2.5 |
| 28.06.25 | J1 League | 1–2 | O2.5 |
| 20.04.25 | J1 League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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