El Nuevo Gasómetro hosts a Superclásico del Sur under the floodlights, and the atmosphere will be electric. San Lorenzo arrive into this with two wins and two draws from their last five, but they have scored in only 3 of those 5 games and have not gone over 2.5 goals once in that run.
Boca come in unbeaten in five across all competitions, winning three, and they have scored in all 5 of those matches. Five absentees on their injury list is a concern, but the head-to-head tells a story: in the last five meetings from San Lorenzo's perspective, Boca have won twice and lost once, with 7 goals scored against 6. The model gives Boca a 46% win probability against San Lorenzo's 18%.
At 2.20, Boca away is the bold call. San Lorenzo's attack has been muted and Boca's recent form is simply superior. Take the away win.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 11.03.26 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 18.08.24 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 3–2 | O2.5 |
| 30.03.24 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 2–1 | O2.5 |
| 08.11.23 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 12.04.23 | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1–0 | U2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service