San Diego FC host Puebla in the Leagues Cup group stage having won their last Leagues Cup home fixture 1-0 against Tijuana. Their form over five games reads 2W-1D-2L with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Puebla arrive in poor shape: 1W-1D-3L in their last five, leaking 11 goals across those matches and keeping just one clean sheet. Both sides have scored in 4 of their last 5 games, so attacking output is not the concern here. The model's two dominant inputs are a 92% home-win probability and an 84% over-2.5 probability. Puebla have gone over 2.5 in 3 of their last 5 outings and conceded in all 4 of their last 5. With San Diego's home advantage and Puebla's defensive frailty, the total looks the cleaner play. Over 2.5 goals is the call.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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