Salzburg open their competitive season at home in the UEFA Europa League third qualifying round, hosting Pafos. The Austrians have won three of their last five matches but two of those defeats came at home against friendly opposition, casting doubt on their readiness. Pafos arrive with one win in five, losing three, including a 0-2 competitive defeat at Hajduk Split - their only meaningful fixture in this run.
Salzburg scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded in 3 of 5. Pafos scored in only 2 of 5 and conceded in 4 of 5. The market prices Pafos as the favourite at 1.70, with Salzburg at a striking 4.90 - reflecting the Cypriot side's UEFA coefficient and European experience advantage. Four of Salzburg's last five games produced over 2.5 goals.
The value sits with Pafos on the Asian Handicap -1, priced at 1.30. Pafos look the sharper side and the gap in European pedigree is real. Back Pafos AH -1 at 1.30.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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