Sabah Baku head into the second leg trailing 1-2 from the first meeting in Beer Sheva. At home in Europe this campaign they crushed Aarhus 4-0, and their last five games show 10 goals scored across 5 appearances. H. Beer Sheva arrive in strong form too: 4 wins from 5, knocking out Crvena zvezda along the way, with 3 clean sheets in that run. Two wounded attackers (Biton, Victor Joao) could blunt their edge.
The key numbers: Sabah scored in all 5 of their last 5 matches; Beer Sheva conceded in 2 of their last 5. Both teams scored in 2 of Sabah's last 5 and in 1 of Beer Sheva's last 5 - low BTTS frequency. The first leg ended 2-1 with both teams scoring, and the market prices BTTS YES at 1.73.
The model leans toward Sabah winning at home (odd_1 1.80 at bet365) to level the tie, but the more precise angle is BTTS YES at 1.73. Both sides have scoring form, the first leg had goals at both ends, and the elimination stakes push both teams forward. Price is fair value.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 19.08.26 | UEFA Champions League | 2–1 | O2.5 |
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