A UCL qualifying derby of styles: Union SG arrive off four friendly wins but all their recent prep has been just that - friendlies. Bodo/Glimt walk in with five straight Eliteserien victories, sharp, competitive and battle-hardened before this first leg. The Norwegians are locked in, Union are still finding their rhythm.
The numbers tell a stark story. Bodo/Glimt have conceded zero goals in their last five matches and kept five clean sheets in a row. Union scored in all five of their games but also conceded in three, leaking nine goals total. Three Bodo/Glimt players are injured, yet their defensive structure has not cracked once. Union's home DNB sits at 1.57 - a price that says the market still fancies the Belgians, and that is exactly where the value hides.
Give me Bodo/Glimt DNB at 2.30. A team that has conceded nothing in five competitive games, arriving at a side still in pre-season mode, deserves more respect than that price suggests. The Norwegian giants are my pick.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 03.10.24 | UEFA Europa League | 0–0 | U2.5 |
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