Rosario Central host Corinthians in the Libertadores last 16 with solid recent form: two wins in five, including a 1-0 away victory over River Plate. Corinthians arrive depleted, with six players on the injury list - Memphis Depay and Andre among them - limiting their attacking options considerably. No head-to-head data exists between these sides, so form and squad depth drive the model.
The two key inputs: Central's DNB price sits at 1.57 (bet365), while the model puts home-win probability at 93%. Corinthians have scored in just 3 of their last 5 games and kept only 2 clean sheets, but their over-2.5 rate is a low 1 in 5. Central's own over-2.5 rate is 3 in 5, pointing to a moderate-scoring affair.
At 1.57, the DNB on Rosario Central offers real value against a heavily injured visiting squad in a high-stakes continental tie. Confidence is firm.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
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