Rize's Black Sea ground hosts a Süper Lig Round 4 clash that has all the hallmarks of a cagey, low-scoring contest. Rizespor have won four of their last five but conceded in four of those outings, while Alanyaspor arrive having beaten Besiktas before stumbling at Eyupspor, collecting just one win from five recent games.
The model gives the draw a 40% probability against a market price of 3.40, a clear edge. In four head-to-head meetings at this ground and away, Rizespor have kept zero clean sheets, and both sides have scored in three of those four duels. Alanyaspor have conceded in only three of their last five, showing a side capable of staying tight. Under 2.5 goals is priced at 1.85 and carries an 86% model probability.
The draw at 3.40 is the main play: the model screams value there. As a kicker, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 suits a fixture where both defences are finding their feet in the early weeks.
The numbers behind the tip
Form · last five
Goals per game · last five
Head-to-head · last five
| 25.01.26 | Süper Lig | 1–1 | U2.5 |
| 16.08.25 | Süper Lig | 0–0 | U2.5 |
| 02.03.25 | Süper Lig | 3–1 | O2.5 |
| 28.09.24 | Süper Lig | 1–0 | U2.5 |
| 20.01.24 | Süper Lig | 2–1 | O2.5 |
Predictions are editorial opinions based on the data available at publication - never a guarantee. Odds move and availability varies by region. 18+, please gamble responsibly. BeGambleAware.org · Joueurs Info Service